Analysis of Post-Election Unrest in Tanzania: Institutional Dynamics and Governance Challenges

Introduction

In the aftermath of the 2025 general election in Tanzania, which resulted in the re-election of President Samia Suluhu Hassan with an overwhelming majority, the nation witnessed significant unrest. The election results, perceived by many as implausible, sparked large-scale protests across the country, attracting public, media, and international attention. This article examines the dynamics underpinning these events, focusing on institutional processes, governance challenges, and the broader implications for Tanzania's political landscape.

Background and Timeline

The election on 25 October 2025 culminated in President Hassan securing a reported 97.66% of the vote, a figure that raised eyebrows both domestically and internationally. The initial calm was disrupted on 29 October, as protesters, voicing their skepticism over the election's integrity, took to the streets. What began as peaceful demonstrations soon escalated into violence. Security forces, tasked with maintaining order, reportedly employed live ammunition, resulting in significant casualties among the protesters.

What Is Established

• The official election results declared Samia Suluhu Hassan as President with 97.66% of the vote.
• Protests erupted on 29 October 2025, following the publicized election results.
• Demonstrators questioned the credibility of the election process.
• Security forces' response involved the use of live ammunition against protesters.

What Remains Contested

• The actual percentage of the popular vote received by President Hassan remains disputed.
• The number of fatalities resulting from the protests is contested, with differing reports from various sources.
• There are conflicting narratives about who initiated the violence during the protests.
• The role of international observers in validating the election process is under scrutiny.

Stakeholder Positions

Various stakeholders have reacted to the events in Tanzania, including political parties, civil society organizations, and international bodies. Opposition parties have condemned the election results as fraudulent, while the ruling party maintains that the process was fair and transparent. The International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) and other media watchdogs have called for an independent investigation into the violence against protesters, emphasizing the need for press freedom and transparency.

Regional Context

Tanzania's post-election unrest is not an isolated incident but rather a reflection of broader regional trends where electoral processes are frequently marred by allegations of irregularities. This situation highlights the challenges faced by many African nations in balancing electoral transparency with maintaining public order. The response of security forces in Tanzania is a critical point of concern, echoing broader debates on governance and human rights across the continent.

Institutional and Governance Dynamics

The events in Tanzania underscore significant institutional and governance dynamics, particularly concerning electoral integrity and the role of security forces. The rapid escalation from peaceful protest to violence highlights potential gaps in the regulatory frameworks that govern law enforcement agencies. There is a critical need for reforms that ensure accountability and transparency within these institutions, to build public trust and safeguard democratic processes.

Forward-Looking Analysis

Looking ahead, Tanzania faces the dual challenge of addressing the immediate fallout from the unrest while embarking on longer-term institutional reforms. Key areas for development include improving the transparency of the electoral commission, enhancing the accountability of security forces, and fostering greater inclusivity in political discourse. The international community's engagement, including that of organizations like the IFJ, may provide support for these reforms, facilitating a path toward greater stability and democratic resilience.